Roller Coaster under repair. Trade Diary # 26
On May 3, bitcoin was worth $ 9,100 dollars; it was halving ahead, which, contrary to expectations, has not yet affected the cryptocurrency rate. Now, on the last day of June, the asset's value is nearly the same – $ 9160, and with you again Roman Farbotko and the latest issue of Trader's Diary.
While Bitcoin then rose to the upper limit of $ 10,000 and then dropped to $ 9,000, I traded altcoins. Last week, for example, I decided that while Bitcoin is bored, its main competitors, forks, would grow and conquer part of the market. As a result, I replenished my wallet with $ 30 in BCH at a rate of $ 241. Almost immediately after that, the price dropped 4% to $ 231.
But I did not sell and decided to wait, because I felt the downturn was short-lived. Now I see no reason to sell, to fix such a loss is simply a shame. Last weekend the price dropped to $ 217, I did not expect, and now it is slightly higher: about $ 221. Losses, albeit small, but quite noticeable in a few days – 8%.
In fact, the longer the market moves sideways, the higher the likelihood of a strong upward or downward movement. And two months, especially for such crazy assets as cryptocurrencies, seems like an extremely long time. Therefore, in the current situation, to end all transactions with Bitcoin while in such a limbo, it seems that I play roulette.
Now, almost none of the analysts predict growth or fall after these extended flat ends. Literally everyone says: either start or fall. One of two. Therefore, the only option at the moment is to wait or take risks. A month ago I would calmly wait, as this is the safest option, but we changed the rules of the game. So now I close the deal and see what happens.
Talk about the second wave of COVID-19 is heard more and more: the number of diseases in Europe and the US is growing again, virologists say this can happen all over the world. Stress in the financial markets is increasing. For example, the S&P 500 index fell below 3,000 points. And risky assets, like stocks, include cryptocurrencies.
“Many traders expect Bitcoin to fall to around $ 8500-8600. Here you can shop. Top altcoins in the midst of a downturn may fall by 10-15% on current prices. The risks of failure are high, explained Vladislav Antonov, an analyst at IAC Alpari.
It turns out that I was wrong and the probability of a case in the current circumstances looks more realistic. According to the expert, we need news that can support the stock market to prevent this from happening, and the S&P 500 broke through the level of 3160 points. Antonov advised to wait and buy cryptocurrency when it becomes cheaper than now.
Sounds like a great opportunity to shorten bitcoin. The markets do not appear to have returned favorably, although the huge liquidity injections cannot believe that quotes can grow in such conditions. The fact that a new round of the pandemic could cause a collapse in the stock markets, the currencies of developing countries and digital assets (bitcoins and altcoins), says Artem Deev, head of AMarket's analytical department.
“Forecasts are possible when the global economy enters a stable trajectory. The growth of digital currencies is also possible in the future from 6 to 12 months, but not before, Deev warned.
Among the negative factors affecting markets, the analyst called the deterioration of US-China relations and the prospect of a Washington-EU trade war. Oil prices continue to decline.
During many editions of the "diaries" I wanted to try what shorts are and how much you can really make money from it. There were no better conditions than now. When I was just starting to write this issue, I was sure that the situation was uncertain, and now it seems obvious that bitcoin should go down. And I – try to make money from it.